NFL Betting Pick: Las Vegas Raiders Kansas City Chiefs u40.5
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Based on data tracked by Sports Insights, the betting total for Christmas morning NFL, AFC West action featuring the Las Vegas Raiders at the Kansas City Chiefs has fallen like a rock over the last week, sliding from 47 to the current 40.5. According to this source, while 57% of O/U wagers are on an exceedingly high aggregate score, 63% of the handle is backing the UNDER. Thus, sharps and squares appear to be at odds.
Worth noting, Joe Public's herding around the OVER is most curious given that the Raiders O/U record is 4-10—tied with the New York Giants for the worst team in the League for OVER backers. Further, the Chiefs 5-10 tally is little better. As we detail below, history appears to validate the positioning of bigger, presumably more shrewd, bettors.
NFLWeather.com forecasts wind speeds ranging between 15 and 17 mph for the action Monday morning, and rain. These conditions indeed appear consistent with the expectation of a low scoring affair. We have covered the inverse correlation between wind speeds and offensive output relative tot expectations several times this season by now, citing the observation reflected in the following graphic.
This simple angle has proven good for a 15% long-term return on investment. Our hypothesis for its persistent profitability is summarized below.
[T]eams generally turn more to ground plays, at the expense of the passing game, in the windiest conditions, in an effort to avoid higher incompletion rates and potential turnovers. This offensive modification translates to reduced scoring, as running plays produce less yards per play and resultantly fewer scoring opportunities...Moreover, as teams in the same division are more familiar with each other (as a result of more frequent matchups), there is a greater ability to counter each other's offensive tendencies and capacities, which likewise keeps a lid on scores.
Relatedly, while we do not have direct data on the impact of rain on scoring, we intuit that more slippery conditions likewise inhibit the passing game and yardage gains (both through the air and on the ground).
Bottom line: Given the empirical link between high winds and lower scores versus expectations, coupled with the two involved teams' natural disposition toward disappointing scores, we are adding to our week 16 NFL betting picks a stab at the UNDER in Raiders at Chiefs action.
Happy betting...and Merry Christmas!!