NFL Betting Picks: Carolina Panthers +3.5 at Tennessee Titans

The Panthers fell to the Cowboys last week, 10-33. This loss represented the third consecutive defeat for Carolina, and dropped the Panthers to 1-9 straight up on the season, and 30-62 since the start of the 2018 season (Carolina last appeared in the post-season in 2017).

In week 12 action Sunday, the Panthers are slated to travel to Tennessee, who at 3-7, is only little better. The Titans are 10-17 since their last playoff appearance (in 2021). We interpret the circumstances surrounding Carolina and Tennessee as supportive of the Panthers' effort versus the number this week. Accordingly, we are taking Carolina north of the key, three level.

Supporting our perspective, we cite the history-based angle indicated in the following graphic.

The system referenced above has delivered a statistically significant 15% long-term return on investment. Further, this set of criteria has submitted losing records in only three seasons over the examination period.

We hypothesize that, generally speaking, games are more up for grabs when low-quality teams (i.e., teams that missed the previous playoffs) match up, giving dogs a greater shot at the win. Further, we note that the gap between NFL teams is not THAT wide (margins of 21-point or more are relatively rare, accounting for less than 18% of all regular season outcomes since 2003-04). As such, we suspect blowouts result more from psychology (which can be corrected quickly) than disparate talent levels.

Supporting our thinking, since 2003-04, only 93 games closed with spreads greater than two touchdowns. We speculate that teams are motivated to buckle down and play better following a big loss, in an effort to seek redemption after an embarrassing showing. This greater mental focus enhances the potential of collecting the ATS win in their next game, we posit.

Moreover, we think the reduced familiarity that attends non-division matchups increases the probability of surprise outcomes (as the opposition is less aware of teams' tendencies and propensities).

In light of the historically reliable signal in favor of the road dogs, and the intuitive rationale for its profitability, the Panthers represent our first betting pick of week 12 NFL Sunday.

Happy betting!!