NFL Betting Picks: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets u40
Winds are forecast to range between 12 and 13 miles per hour when the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in this NFL week 12 AFC East showdown Friday. History hints that this setup favors the UNDER. We are betting accordingly.
Specifically, we have observed an exploitable bias toward the UNDER, as indicated in the following graphic, which we have covered several times this season (most recently here).
Since we created the graphic shown above, this system is 2-2 (for a 7-2 showing so far this season and a 232-170-5 aggregate record). Omitting situations featuring closed domes, this set of criteria is 6-2 this year and 224-155-5 (59%) since 2003-04.
Over the long-term, the version of this angle that considers only games played in open-air environments has delivered a statistically significant 14% return on investment, and has submitted losing seasons in only five years over the examination period. In our prior commentary, we offered the following rationale for its consistent success:
[T]eams generally turn more to ground plays, at the expense of the passing game, in the windiest conditions, in an effort to avoid higher incompletion rates and potential turnovers. This offensive modification translates to reduced scoring, as running plays produce less yards per play and resultantly fewer scoring opportunities...Moreover, as teams in the same division are more familiar with each other (as a result of more frequent matchups), there is a greater ability to counter each other's offensive tendencies and capacities, which likewise keeps a lid on scores.
Given the impact of expected strong winds and the reduced scoring that generally attends matchups between the most familiar competition, we are endorsing the UNDER as one of our NFL betting picks for week 12 action featuring the Dolphins at Jets.
Worth noting, as is indicated in the chart above, the betting total has dropped dramatically from the opening level. In fact, the O/U is down a couple of points since the Jets made the decision to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson. We do not expect this movement diminishes the prospects for the UNDER though, as the long-term historical profitability that undergirds this play is measured against closing lines.
With that said, inclined bettors might want to jump on the UNDER sooner than later, as falling lines into the close are the norm from this spot (the O/U dropped from open to close in more than 69% of similar instances examined in over 20 NFL seasons).
Happy betting!!