2023 NFL Week 9 1H Betting Picks Guide—Backing Struggling Offense
NFL Betting Picks: Backing underperforming offenses versus the 1H number—Houston Texans -1 1H and Las Vegas Raiders -0.5 1H
The Texans' offense has not mustered an average number of points in their last three games. Most recently, Houston (3-4) managed 13, 20 and 19, respectively, at Carolina, versus New Orleans and at Atlanta (though the 20 was sufficient to get by the Falcons). The boys of H-Town will host the Tampa Bay Bucs in week 9.
Similarly, Las Vegas (3-5) has posted 14,12 and 21 in their last three, at Detroit and Chicago and versus New England. The Raiders are slated to host the New York Giants in week 9 action this afternoon.
We are taking laying the modest chalk and backing the Texans and Raiders against the first half lines. Our rationale is detailed just below:
The angle laid out in the graphic has delivered a 15% long-term return on investment, statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, and has suffered losing records in only four seasons over the lookback period.
Explaining the success of this system, we suspect that while the ability of teams facing these circumstances to right the ship versus the whole game number is less consistent (as they may lack sufficient talent or managerial expertise), they are commonly good for an upside surprise over the first half of action, as better offenses of quality teams (i.e., squads that earned a recent playoff appearance) take them too lightly early, before adjusting and clamping down after half time. The non-division criteria adds an element of unfamiliarity, which increases the likelihood of such teams to surprise early (teams from different divisions play each other less frequently and so are less intimately aware of each other's tendencies and competencies).
Given the empirical support for this approach, and an intuitive rationale, we are including among out NFL betting picks for week 9 first half plays on these two recently unproductive offenses.
Worth noting, since last week there has been a shakeup at the Raiders' organization, resulting in the dismissal of the head coach and GM. Further, under Interim Head Coach, Antonio Pierce, Jimmy Garoppolo has been stripped of starting QB status in favor of Aidan O'Connell.
The full game betting line peaked at Raiders -3.5, but has tightened to the present -1.5 since this news broke.