NFL Betting Picks: Panthers +4 & NY Giants +14 -120
The Carolina Panthers prevailed over the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte last week, despite posting an anemic nine points (Atlanta mustered only a solitary touchdown in week 15 action). This win represents the first in Carolina's last seven contests and only the second of their season. Heading into week 16, the Panthers are currently taking four points from the 6-8 Green Bay Packers. Green Bay dropped their last two, but rattled off three straight wins prior to the current skid. As a result of their struggles of late, the Packers are 1-2 SU/ATS as favorites (Green Bay laid the chalk in their weeks 14 & 15 losses). As was the case versus the Bucs last week and at the NY Giants the week before, we suspect Sunday's action at Lambeau Field represents yet another spot where the cheeseheads are overvalued. Accordingly, we are taking the points with Carolina on the road.
The Panthers are backed by a mere 28% of ATS wagers tracked by Sports Insights, as of the time of this writing. Because of of this mostly one-way action, as the graphic above illustrates, the spread has widened from the an initial level of Packers -1 a week-and-a-half ago, to between -4 and -5 at present. History suggests taking Carolina plus better than the most important number in football is the shrewd play.
The angle indicated in the graphic just above has proven good for a statistically significant 19% long-term return on investment. In our write-up for our (failed) week 12 play on the New York Jets as hosts to the Miami Dolphins, we offered the following thesis for this system's enduring success.
We suspect its profitability owes to the public's recency bias, which leads bettors to shun teams following soft offensive showings. We suppose extreme herding around teams facing squads that produced only a few points in their last game leads bookmakers to shade lines, which creates value with these recent underperformers.
By the way, this same angle advocates for a play on the New York Football Giants in Christmas Day action. The chart below illustrates that New York opened as 7.5 point dogs at the Philadelphia Eagles this week, but with 72% of ATS bets and 67% of the handle tracked by Sports Insights down on the road team, the spread has ballooned to two touchdowns at some shops.
The New York Giants at Philadelphia will mark the first time this season the Eagles will be favored by double-digits. This big ask comes after Philadelphia dropped three straight, including an upset loss last week at the Seattle Seahawks. Further, reports are circulating that Jalen Hurts' capacity to lead his team is being questioned by some insiders. We suspect the tough patch and uncertainty shrouding the Eagles marks an ideal spot to fade the Philly. As such, the Giants as well as the Panthers make the cut for our week 16 NFL betting picks.
Happy betting!!