2023 NFL Week 10 Betting Picks Guide—Betting on Reversion to the Mean
NFL Betting Picks: A basis for backing three teams that have struggled against the spread—siding with New England, New Orleans and the New York Giants for covers
Per the image below (from TeamRankings), with a mere two covers each heading into week 10, the Pats, Saints and New York Giants are among the worst teams in the League for spread bettors.
These teams will face the Colts, Vikings and Cowboys, respectively, Sunday, three profitable teams ATS (Indy, Minnesota and Dallas boast a combined ATS record of 15-10-1 on the season).
History suggests bettors should embrace the aforementioned unprofitable squads versus the number, despite their disappointing showings through week 9, as, once the season starts in earnest, the worst teams ATS have demonstrated a strong tendency to cover the spread when facing teams with better records versus the number.
Per data from the Action Network, the angle described just above has delivered a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) 18% long-term return on investment, with only three losing seasons over the lookback season.
When we detailed this system in week 8, we offered the following explanation for its consistent success:
Our hypothesis is that casual bettors tend to expect covering teams to continue to beat the number, and struggling to continue to experience hardship against the spread. As bettors unduly flock toward covering teams and shun ATS losers, lines move accordingly, until value is ultimately created with organizations boasting the worst records versus those with better tallies versus the number.
Given this compelling historical precedent, we are including the following wagers among our week 10 NFL betting picks:
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots +2
New Orleans Saints -3 @ Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants +17 @ Dallas Cowboys