NFL Betting Picks: Backing the Bucs to end their three-game skid in Houston—Tampa Bay +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, of the NFC South, are 3-4 after dropping three straight—at Buffalo, and versus Atlanta and Detroit. The Bucs are taking a field goal at NRG Stadium in Houston Sunday, from the second-place team in the AFC South, the 3-4 Houston Texans. We like Tampa to beat the number, on the basis of the following system.

The angle represented in the graphic has proven good for a 20% long-term return on investment, statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Explaining the success of this set of criteria, we hypothesize that quality teams (i.e., those that most recently qualified for the playoffs) possess both the talent and mental fortitude to right the ship, at least versus the number if not outright, after sustaining losing streaks of moderate duration (which may result from factors such as exceptionally tough schedules or lapses in psychological acuity). Non-division opposition is less familiar with these squad's propensities and capacities, as a result of fewer meetings, making surprisingly good performances more likely.

Accordingly, we are adopting the Bucs +3 as one of our NFL betting picks for week 9.

Happy betting!!