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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports
    • Nov 26, 2023
    • 1 min read

2023 NFL Week 12 Betting Picks Guide—Siding With the Worst Teams ATS Vs. the Best

Updated: Dec 30, 2023

NFL Betting Picks: Backing Two Dogs vs. Bettor Friendly Opposition

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills and Justin Herbert and the LA chargers are among our 2023 NFL week 12 ATS betting picks

The Buffalo Bills, who are 4-6-1 versus the number through week 11 of the 2023 season, will face the 6-2-2 ATS Philadelphia Eagles (in Philly) Sunday, as underdogs of a field goal. 59% of ATS betting volume and 75% of the handle is down on Buffalo. We are aligned with the masses and are siding with the Bills for the cover road cover.


After the NFL season commences in earnest, backing underdogs with the worst ATS records has proven solidly profitable versus teams with the best records versus the number

This angle has delivered a statistically significant 11% long-term return on investment over the examination period, and has submitted losing records in a mere three seasons.


At the root of the success of this system is recency bias, which leads bettors to expect covering teams to continue to cover and vice versa. This erroneous extrapolation of the near past compels action on recent winners versus the number and the avoidance of losers. These tendencies, in turn, lead bookmakers to shade lines, which ultimately creates value with losers, we suppose.


Similar to the setup for the Bills, the 4-6 SU/ATS Los Angeles Chargers are taking a field goal as hosts to the 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS Baltimore Ravens. As such, a play is triggered on LA, per this same set of criteria. Our week 12 NFL betting picks include plays on both the Bills and Chargers for the cover.


Buffalo Bills +3 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers +3

Happy betting!!


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