In weeks 1-9, the UNDER was a dominant 83-52 (61%). Since that point (through the first three games of week 16), the OVER is 48-43 (53%). The normalization that appears to be underway opens the door for a couple of plays on higher than expected aggregate scoring this week, based on the long-term profitable angle described in the following graphic.

Our suspicion is that the 14% long-term return on investment this set of criteria has generated owes to the public's recency bias, which moves the market to underestimate output for games among teams that struggled to put up points and that are coming off losses in their last action. We believe the expression of this tendency is likely amplified in later-day games, which tend to draw more attention (i.e. betting action), given the greater likelihood of nationally televised broadcasts. Moreover, we theorize that the upside surprise potential for scores is enhanced in competition between teams from different divisions, as a relative lack of familiarity (associated with fewer meetings) diminishes teams' readiness and ability to counter their opposition's offensive tendencies.

Two games fit the criteria for this angle: the Cardinals at Chicago Bears at New England Patriots at Denver Broncos. Our week 16 NFL betting picks card features plays on the OVER in both cases.

Happy betting!!