NFL Betting Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals +6 1H -115

The Arizona Cardinals are 1-6 on the season and have mustered only 10, 9, 20 and 16 points per game in their last four (the average NFL team is posting a bit less than 22 points per out, so far this season). History suggests teams tend to beat the first half number though after protracted stints of weak offense. Accordingly, rather than joining the masses and piling on the Ravens as big road favorites, we are taking the points with the lowly Cardinals versus the 1H line.

The angle indicated in the graphic has proven good for a statistically significant 16% long-term return on investment and has submitted a losing ATS record in only four seasons.

Our thesis is that this system works because better teams (perhaps defined by recent playoff experience) tend to take their foot off the gas, so to speak, versus bad offenses, while teams that have struggled to put points on the board bring to bear the utmost in mental focus, in an effort to improve their plight. The first half cover is especially likely versus opposition from different divisions perhaps merely as a result of a relative lack of familiarity with offensive tendencies (owing to more infrequent meetings). Teams with consistently bad offenses may simply lack the talent to beat the full game number though.

As such, while better than two-thirds of ATS wagers counted by The Action Network and 80% of the handle is on Baltimore to beat the number, we are adding the Cardinal plus the points to our NFL betting picks list in week 8...at least versus the first half line.

Happy betting!!