NFL Betting Pick: Bengals @ Chiefs o45.5
Photo by Andrew Mather
We endorsed two plays on exceedingly high scores last week. Both cashed. Despite a 126-97-1 (57%) cover rate for UNDERs through week 15, OVERs submitted an 11-5 tally in week 16. this is so say that we had the wind in our sails in these cases, as sit turned out. We can not know if the normalization evident last week will continue into week 17 (after all, UNDERs hit at about a 51% rate since 2003-04), but we are going back to the proverbial well Sunday and betting on another OVER, on the basis of the same system that triggered our winning week 16 bets.
This angle has delivered a 15% long-term return on investment and has submitted losing records in only four seasons over the examination period.
We offered the following rationale for this consistent and persistent profitability:
Our suspicion is that the [then] 14% long-term return on investment this set of criteria has generated owes to the public's recency bias, which moves the market to underestimate output for games among teams that struggled to put up points and that are coming off losses in their last action. We believe the expression of this tendency is likely amplified in later-day games, which tend to draw more attention (i.e. betting action), given the greater likelihood of nationally televised broadcasts. Moreover, we theorize that the upside surprise potential for scores is enhanced in competition between teams from different divisions, as a relative lack of familiarity (associated with fewer meetings) diminishes teams' readiness and ability to counter their opposition's offensive tendencies.
Given that the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs were held to a mere two touchdowns in an upset defeat as hosts to the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and the Cincinnati Bengals, the worst team in the AFC North, mustered only 11 in a surprise loss at Pittsburgh, this afternoon's Bengals at Chiefs action fits the criteria for this system. Accordingly, we are counting Cincy at KC o45.5 among our NFL betting picks for week 17.
Interestingly, Kansas City is tied for the second-worst OVER record in the League. We think the stars are aligned though for a shootout at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday (the Bengals are tied for the third-best OVER record in the NFL, by the way).
Happy betting!!