NFL Betting Picks: Two-leg, six-point teaser featuring the Cleveland Browns -1.5 & Buffalo Bills -6

We are backing the New York Football Jets for the cover in week 17 Thursday Night Football action, on the basis of a reliable angle, and because we like the hook that gets us above a key number with the dog. We do, however, expect the Browns, who have rattled off three in a row ATS and straight up, to win outright. As such, our NFL betting picks this week also include Cleveland, in a two-leg, six-point teaser.

As a refresher, a teaser is a bet on multiple outcomes (like a parlay), but featuring enhanced lines. A two-leg, six-point teaser is a wager that combines two separate bets, with the threshold for winning each reduced by six points. So, in this case, Cleveland -7.5 is modified to Cleveland -1.5 in our particular six-point teaser.

The standard vigorish for a two-leg, six-point teaser is -120 (i.e. a bettor must risk $120 to win $100 if both teased lines hit).

In order to break even with two-leg, six-point teasers, a bettor must win about 54.5% of the time, calculated as money risked ÷ money collected (in the event of a win), or 120 ÷ (120+100). This math implies that each must hit roughly 73.9% of the time, on average, to avert loss...√120 ÷ (120+100).

Per the graphic below, the 91% hit rate for six-point teased lines on regular season Thursday Night Football favorites of more than a touchdown dramatically exceeds this hurdle rate.

For the second leg of our teaser, we are siding with Buffalo at home versus New England. The Bills are 9-6 after winning three straight, while the Pats are 4-11 after tasting victory in two of their last four (including a road win at Denver as seven-point dogs on Christmas Eve). Buffalo is giving up 12, currently. We are teasing this spread down to the Bills -6.

Per the next graphic, the biggest chalk layers have beat teased lines with great regularity since 2003-04 (again, well in excess of the average win rate required to imply long-term profitability).

Admittedly though, the best team in New York has struggled this season as big favorites. Buffalo is 0-3 when laying at least ten. Nonetheless, we suspect the Bills are sufficiently motivated (and, of course, talented enough) to finish at least close enough to the cover for our purposes.

We note that Buffalo must claim a win this week to keep any hope alive of threatening the Miami Dolphins for the top spot in the AFC East. After knocking off the Boys last week, the Fins are 11-3, but face the 12-3 Ravens in Baltimore this week and then close out the regular season as hosts to these Bills next week. Given this backdrop, we think a definitive Bills win versus the worst team in the division is quite probable.

Happy betting!!