NFL Betting Pick: New York Jets +7.5 -115 at Cleveland Browns

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The New York Football Jets are 1-7-1 ATS and 3-6 SU in their last nine games, after winning but narrowly missing the cover as hosts to the Commanders in week 16. The Jets are slated to travel to the Browns to kick off week 17 on Thursday, as 7.5 point underdogs. Cleveland is 6-3 SU/ATS in their last nine, is the most bettor-friendly team in the League in their own building and is tied for the second-best ATS record overall, per TeamRankings. Most recently, the Browns knocked off the Texans, 36-22, from the position of three-point favorites. But despite Cleveland's prowess versus the number (especially as a host team) and New York's struggles, we are backing the Jets for the road cover, at greater than the key level. The angle detailed in the following graphic supports this play.

This system described above has delivered a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) 16% long-term return on investment, and has submitted losing records in only four years over the examination period.

Rationalizing its persistent profitability, we posit that recency bias evident in betting markets results in mispriced lines, as casual bettors clamor to support teams that have experienced success of late, leading bookmakers to share lines. We theorize that an overestimation of the value of home field advantage enhances the value with road teams (we noted in a week 16 note that away teams covered the spread at a 51.3% clip since 2003-04, which proved statistically significantly different from 50% and suggests a true, albeit slight, advantage for away squads). Additionally, we suspect that more frequent meetings associated with action featuring teams from the same conference likewise gives road teams an edge from this position, as the greater familiarity better prepares these squads to counter their opposition's offensive capacities and tendencies (NFL scheduling criteria mandate that only five of 17 regular season games pit teams against the other conference).

Accordingly, we are opening our NFL betting picks for the penultimate week of the regular season with a play on the Jets, with Trevor Siemian under Center. We note that, since stepping in for Zach Wilson, Siemian has improved each week, including authoring the game winning drive versus Washington in week 16.

Happy betting!!