Taking points with the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to close out the preseason

Consistent with the long-term edge underdogs have exhibited historically, point-takers are 17-14-2 (55%) ATS, for about a 5% profit, through two weeks of NFL preseason play. For the last week of exhibition action, per the new, abbreviated preseason mandate, we are backing four pooches, including three road dogs that fit the following system:

In non-conference preseason play, road dogs that made the prior playoffs have proven great bets facing teams that missed the last postseason.

This system has delivered a statistically significant 18% return on investment since 2004-05, and has suffered only four seasons with cover rates below 50%. This angle is 3-1 against the spread so far this season.

Chalk-layers that have not earned a recent playoff slot are oftentimes overvalued, particularly versus less familiar, non-conference opposition, whose offensive schemes are more foreign and therefore (at least somewhat) more effective. The public's tendency to herd around favorites only exacerbates mispricings in these instances (see here and here for examples of empirical studies documenting betting markets' bias against underdogs). Accordingly, we are making the following wagers:

Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Carolina Panthers

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 -105 @ Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 @ Indianapolis Colts

Astute readers will notice we mentioned earlier that we are backing four dogs in the final week of the preseason. Our fourth play is on the Kansas City Chiefs at the Green Bay Packers, Thursday.

Happy betting!!