Backing the home team as short dogs: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
In Thursday night NFL preseason action, backing teams that made the last postseason and that are taking points from outside their conference has proven a very profitable approach, historically.
Adherence to this simple system has delivered an 18% return on investment since the 2004-05 season, and has suffered cover rates below 50% in only two years (this angle is 1-0 ATS so far this season).
Per this system, a play is triggered on the Chiefs in Thursday's kick-off game for the NFL's preseason week 3 docket. Kansas City, of the AFC, is slated as 1.5 point home dogs to the NFC-member Green Bay Packers (the Chiefs fell to the Bengals in the Conference Championship round of the playoffs last year).
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid's strategy regarding the exhibition season is to gradually increase starters usage as the preseason progresses, with the objective being to round key players into form by the first regular season contest. Reid's starters generally play the first quarter of the first preseason game, the first half of the second game and three quarters of game three.
The shortened preseason this year altered this practice somewhat. Reid has given starters fewer reps to allow adequate playing time for the evaluation of players fighting to earn roster spots. However, his best players utilization is still ramping up with each successive preseason game.
For example, Kansas City's star QB, Patrick Mahomes II, played one drive in the week 1 loss to the Bears, and two in last week's 'no-sweat' win and cover versus the Washington Commanders. We expect Mahomes to lead the Chiefs on at least three drives Thursday.
On the other hand, the Packers star QB, Aaron Rodgers, has not taken a snap in the exhibition season since 2018. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur committed to giving Rodgers a pass for the first two preseason games of this year, but is is reportedly undecided about whether to play the Packers' starters in week 3
This uncertainty suggests Rodgers is more likely to make a preseason appearance than has been the case in years. And, as Rodgers has indicated in no uncertain terms that playing just one series makes no sense to him, if he does takes the field, we think he will likely play for at least an entire drive.
Still, our guess is that the Chiefs starters will see more field time than the Packers first-stringers, which we expect will translate to a meaningful edge for the home team. This observation, combined with the aforementioned history-based system highlighting Kansas City for the cover, gives us sufficient confidence to take the points with the Chiefs at home.
Happy betting!!