Dearth of history says back covers in New York & Miami: Jets +6 & Dolphins +3.5
New England Pats @ NY Jets +6
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins +3.5
Our BetLabs dashboard (of history-informed NFL systems) lit up like a Christmas tree after week 2 NFL lines were set. The broadest and most robust supports came in on the Giants, Jets, Dolphins and Falcons, which all find validation from the week 2 output of power rankings framework. We detailed comprehensive rationales (separately) for taking the points with the Giants at Washington Thursday and the Falcons at Tampa Bay Sunday, so we'll restrict our discussion here to the (strong) bases for taking stabs at the Fins and Jets, plus the chalk.
Taking familiar points...
First, we note that early season matchups among the most familiar teams tend toward point-takers, against-the-spread.
Historically, backing division underdogs over the first five weeks of the regular NFL season has proven a profitable endeavor, generating a 16% return on investment since 2005...
This system is 2-0 ATS so far this young season, and bigger picture, has a solid track record of consistent, statistically significant profit (since 2005, losses accrued in only two seasons).
To rationalize this strong performance, we submit that the NFL schedule, which mandates more frequent meetings between teams in the same division, results in more intimate knowledge of the strengths of teams in the division. This, in turn, lends to increased capacities to counter specific tendencies, resulting in closer games (i.e. tighter spreads) and an underdog edge. Later in the season, as starters shake off rust, this system loses value.
ATS plays are triggered, per this system, on the Jets, Panthers, Dolphins, Falcons and Lions for week 2.
Capping with OG Pythagoras...
Additionally, the week 1 underperformance by both the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills appears to set the stage for disappointment versus the number this week. As 3.5 point home favorites, the Pats fell to the Fins, 17-16. More surprisingly, the Bills were upset by a touchdown at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, as 6.5 point home favorites. Historically, underperforming regular season favorites struggled to cover the chalk against their division.
In divisional play, fading favored teams with realized SU win rates below their Pythagorean Expectation through week 5 has been good for a 21% long-term return...
The tendency in the NFL recent in years has increasingly been for teams to rest high value players during the pre-season, in an effort to avert season-altering injury to key personnel. Per a review by NFL.com, starters saw something like 14% of pre-season snaps in 2019, compared to an average north of 80% for the first game of the regular season.
Our theory is that, as a result of the best players' inactivity, rust is commonly evident in the early going of the NFL regular season. As John Harbough and Pete Carroll can attest though, resting starters in the preseason is not universally universal, so teams across the League typically enter the regular season with varying levels of preparedness. Nonetheless, evidence is pretty clear that weak showings early tend to signal favorites that have yet to find their stride, and that are likely to continue to struggle versus the number.
Against the Grain...
Also consistent with the idea of covers in New York (especially) and Miami Sunday, to this point the betting public is shunning these two dogs. In the past bettors have been well served to stray from the herd when agreement regarding favorites' potential to beat the number reaches extreme levels.
Over about the first third of the NFL season, backing Conference dogs supported by no more than 30% of ATS bets has returned 18% back to 2005...
We believe that the exploitation of casual bettors' recency bias explains the success of this approach. Specifically, we expect the Jets 2-15 SU record since last year (or New York's 13-36 tally since 2018) looms large in bettor psyches, rendering the possibility of taking a flyer on such a lowly team unpalatable.
Similarly, the Bills sustained only three regular season losses last year. In fact, Buffalo rattled off an eight-game win streak that carried the best team in New York to the Conference Championship round of the playoffs. We expect bettors are generally disinclined to support the Dolphins, who have not seen the post-season since 2016, against this degree of momentum.
The Jets are backed by an anemic 18% of spread bets, as of the time of this writing, well below the 30% cutoff for this system. As a result of the vast ATS support the Pats have garnered, the spread has climbed higher from an opening level of +3.5 to +6. Inclined bettors might want to wait until closer to kickoff to jump on the Jets bandwagon, as herding around the Patriots might pressure the line higher still.
The Dolphins, at present, have amassed the backing of 28% of the support of the spread betting public -- still actionable, but more marginally so. Despite the lopsided flows the Bills way, the line has held pretty steady at Miami +3.5.
This system endorses covers by the Jets, Dolphins and Ravens.
Note that this indication is tentative and subject to change. It is possible, for instance (though unlikely), that a wave of bets come in on the Jets, elevating support to above 30% and invalidating the signal. This happening is much less of a stretch for the Fins, who have close to 30% backing already.
After a sputtering offense...
More still, early in the season, siding with underdogs coming off disappointing offensive showings has likewise been demonstrated as a winning long-term strategy.
Through the first six weeks of the football year, pooches that scored no more than 20 points last game have been good for a 10% return on investment since 2005...
Again, we hypothesize that Joe Public's tendency to overweight recent outcomes justifies the profitability of this system.
Crunching the Numbers...
Through a different lens, our quantitative methodology gives the Bills a 1.5-2.5 point week 2 advantage over the Dolphins on a neutral field. But, history implies Miami deserves close to a point-and-a-half edge as hosts of Sunday's action. Thus, we think Buffalo is no better than one point (or so) favorites for this AFC East matchup Sunday.
Similarly, we make the Pats roughly six points better than the Jets in week 2 in a hypothetical unbiased stadium. But the Jets have lost by a considerably wider margin away than at home, on average, suggesting about a three point home field adjustment s appropriate. Accordingly, we see about three points value with New York.
Happy betting!!