Fading Washington Absent Starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick: New York Giants +4
We are backing the New York Giants as road dogs Thursday at the Washington Football Team. Supporting our thinking, our power rankings composite makes this contest a toss-up, while we observe a ton of contextual support for Giants cover. Accordingly, we are comfortable getting down on New York, north of a key spread level.
Washington's journeyman QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, sustained a hip injury early in week 1 action this past Sunday. FiveThirtyEight's predictive framework makes Washington about five points worse without Fitzpatrick. Football Outsiders DYAR methodology is rather sympathetic, indicating that, for all of Fitzpatrick's career ups and downs, the 16th year Harvard alum was about as valuable as a Dak Prescott last season, or somewhere in the vicinity of average for a starting NFL quarterback.
The betting line has not reacted much to the news. We regard this development as an underreaction. Last year, Southpoint sportsbook director, Chris Andrews, ascribed a value of two spread points to Fitzpatrick (over Tua Tagovailoa, for the Miami Dolphins). More-or-less inline with this thinking, Jimmy Boyd concluded that non-elite, starting QBs are worth 3-4 spread points.
After adjusting for Fitzpatrick's injury, we make the Giants the ever so slight favorites in week 2, on a hypothetical neutral field. But, from the 2003 NFL regular season through last year's proceedings, Washington's average margin was roughly -2.1 at home, compared to -3.6 on the road. As such, per Jimmy Boyd's True Home Field Edge approach, the hosts of NFL action at FedEx Field deserve a bit less than a one-point edge for home field. In all, we grade this game something close to a PICK, so we perceive plenty of value with New York versus the current number Thursday.
In addition to the indication from our gauge of fundamental value, several solidly profitable, history-based systems likewise triggered plays on the Giants Thursday, forming a compelling base of environmental support around our powers rankings-based signal.
For instance, it has proven quite profitable historically to fade underperforming favorites in divisional play, early in the NFL season.
Over about the first third of the regular NFL season, betting against chalk layers that are underperforming their Pythagorean expectation has been good for a 20% return on investment versus their division, since 2003-04...
From the other side of the field, underdogs off bad prior seasons have likewise proven strong bets, facing the most familiar competition.
Backing teams taking points from their division after seasons of six or fewer wins has been good for an 18% long-term ROI...
Taken together, when two bad teams face-off, the determining factor, for the purposes of the ATS win, is oftentimes the points. Siding with the underdog has proven the play, more often than not.
Backing the underdog has delivered a 13% long-term return on investment in contests featuring teams with no better than 30% win rates on the season...
Bottom line: The combination of the bettter than a field goal's worth of value we perceive with the Giants, coupled with a robust body of environmental support consistent with the underdog cover, leaves us confident that New York can secure their first ATS win of the season, versus a hobbled Washington unit.
Happy betting!!