Betting the New England turnaround has legs: Patriots +7 -135

Our primary framework slates the Rams as roughly a field goal better than the Patriots on a neutral field in week 14. As such, we perceive ample value with the road dogs at the listed line of Pats +6. However, given the historical importance of the seven point margin in NFL play, we are paying up for the extra point and backing New England plus a touchdown.

In some ways, the Patriots' present spot parallels last week's position, where we called for New England to win outright as slight underdogs. Our rationale for backing New England for the straight up win included the view that, after dropping every game played between weeks 4 and 8, the Patriots turnaround of the last five weeks (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) should be trusted. To validate this thesis, we cited the historical precedent for resurging teams to cover as underdogs.

Teams started the season badly (45-55% season-to-date win rate) but won at least three of their last four games have proven strong bets as underdogs, good for a 12% return on investment since 2004.

This system is 3-1 ATS so far this year.

Happy betting!!