Buying the Pats resurgence: New England Patriots ML +115

Our go-to framework makes the Patriots roughly a field goal better than the Chargers in week 13 on a neutral field, such as the fan-less SoFi Stadium on Los Angeles, where Sunday afternoon's action will take place. Supporting this indication, we note a broad-based, historically profitable trend that also favors New England to beat the number. Accordingly, we are backing the Pats, but on the moneyline, as in the case of short spreads such as today's two point affair, the straight up winner is most typically also the team that covers; we like the 25 point swing related to not paying the 10 points of juice against the spread and potentially winning an extra 15 points with the plus-money odds on New England).

In alliance with our power rankings framework's call, history says to buy into the Patriots' resurgence. After dropping four in a row, Cam Newton has led the Pats to the promised land in three of the last four our, including wins over the Ravens and Cardinals. The Pats' cover today would be consistent with the most common experience:

Teams on hot streaks (at least three wins in last four games) after some earlier struggles (overall records of 45-55%) tend to be solid bets as underdogs. This system is 2-1 this season.

It doesn't hurt that the Chargers are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS in their last 5.

Happy betting!!