Betting the Ball is about over for Cinderella Browns: Kansas City Chiefs -10
At the start of the regular season, ESPN's FPI framework called for eight Browns wins on the season, deeming it ultimately unlikely Cleveland would make a post-season appearance (46% probability). FiveThirtyEight likewise forecast the Browns would end the year at 8-8, but estimated the chance of a playoff berth as an even less likely 41%.
Cleveland significantly outperformed expectations, accruing a 12-4 record in the regular season and earning a seat at the Wildcard table. In a continuation of the the Browns improbable run, Cleveland upset the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in the Browns' first playoff action since 2002. We liken Clevelband's path to that of Cinderella at the ball (granted, a perhaps too oft-referenced sports analogy). By our big clock, it is about 11:45PM and ol' Cindy just enjoyed a dance with Prince Charming.
We are betting that, by the the conclusion of today's meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs (the reigning Kings of the NFL), the clock will have struck twelve and Cleveland's fairytale run will be over. We expect the Chiefs to cover the double-digit margin.
Supporting our Cinderella parallel, we note that, in fact, teams facing competition from a different divisions after upsets wins in the Wildcard round tend to not beat the number in Divisional playoff action. In the small sample of games fitting these criteria since 2004, this system has delivered a 24% return on investment (including a 2-1 ATS run so far this season), and submitted less than a 50% cover rate in only two of these years.
Separately, generally speaking, fading double-digit NFL spreads is the rule during the regular season. Teams laying ten or more during weeks 1-17 have covered at a 47% clip since 2004. Betting against teams in this spot has delivered a 3% return. By the playoffs though, softer teams have been weeded out and spreads might indicate truer reflections of the disparities between teams.
Consistent with this thinking, historically, big favorites have proven meaningfully profitable ATS bets in the NFL playoffs. Backing the biggest post-season favorites ATS has delivered a 16% long-term return. And while the sample size is again notably small, returns have proven quite consistent, as winning ATS records were amassed in all but three seasons since 2004 (1-1 so far this year).
The line Browns at Chiefs line opened at Kansas City -10 but has found pressure recently and is now on offer at 9.5 at most shops of the time of this writing, so this system may or may not apply at kickoff.
More fundamentally, per Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) statistic, which measures team efficiency by evaluating the success of every single play versus the League average and adjusting for situation and opponent, the Chiefs offense was not only the second highest-powered in the NFL during the regular season, but also the second most consistent offense in the League.
On the other hand, the Browns also rank among the top-ten NFL offenses by DVOA (in both passing and running), however, Cleveland's has exhibited more volatility with the ball than all NFL teams all but the Patriots, who's season was plagued by injury and uncertainty at the most important position in football.
Thus, just as bettors and fans know that the Patrick Mahomes-powered Kansas City offense is going to move the ball and post points, they can be as confident in the Browns up-and-down nature, which suggests you might reasonably see solid play or below average offense on display in any given week. History suggests the present is solid spot to bet on imminent reversion for Cleveland, after an unexpected win, and facing a rested elite offense with playoff experience. We are laying the chalk with the Chiefs.
Happy betting!!