New England @ Tampa Bay +6 -115
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
October 5, 2017, 5:25PM
Our power ranking framework favors the Bucs plus the two field goals, as we make the Pats to be 3-5 points better than the home team this evening. Consistent with this outlook, we note that the Patriots boast the, hands down, worst defense in the NFL overall and against the pass through four weeks of action (by DVOA). Conversely, the Bucs rank 9th in the League throwing the ball, and Jameis Winston will be coming off a 332 yard performance against the Giants that included 3 touchdowns (and zero interceptions).
Also Tom Brady's favorite target, Rob Gronkowski, is listed as doubtful with a thigh injury. Gronk's injury likely hints that the Pats offense will be at less than full throttle, even if the star tight end does suit up.
In addition, we note that the while the Patriots were the best bet in football last season, New England is a dismal 1-3 so far this year. As such, betting against Brady and the crew is not nearly as sacrilegious as would have been the case in 2016. Further, the Pats are only 3-3-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday Night appearances, and are 4-3 ATS (lifetime) against Tampa Bay.
Broadly speaking, underdgos are 35-24-2 on the season (for a 59% win rate), after back-to-back winning outs in weeks 3 and 4. Home dogs are 13-10 so far this year, and have led backers to the Cashier's Window after 57% of applicable contests.
As two-thirds of all spread wagers tracked by SportsInsights back the Patriots, we expect the Bucs to pad the stats for dogs this evening by keeping this game closer than the betting public expects, compliments of an especially soft New England passing defense.
Happy betting!!