Week 15 TNF: Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Backing the home cover and the under Thursday: Raiders -3 (-113) & u53.5 (-110)
Our primary, power rankings-based, framework makes the Raiders to be 3.5-5 points better than the Chargers in week 15, on a neutral field of play. The computer simulation routines in our lineup likewise endorse the prospect of the Raiders' cover (in fact, the machines see a solid chance that Las Vegas runs away with this one). Accordingly, we are laying the field goal and backing the home team to beat the number.
We also note that, in aggregate, season to date, team-level trends seem to support the Raiders:
Raiders 1-0 ATS vs AFC West, 5-4 in their Conference,
Chargers 1-2 ATS in the division, 3-6 vs the number overall against AFC,
Raiders 3-2 ATS laying chalk,
Las Vegas 2-3 ATS off a loss,
Los Angeles 1-2 ATS after a win
Separately, we are making the case for the under. Later in the NFL season and into the playoffs, divisional matchups featuring above average totals have proven fertile ground for under-backers, delivering 21% long-term return on investment (h/t to The Action Network).
This system is 9-5 so far this year.
Further, the under is 12-3 since 2011, for a jaw-dropping 53% ROI, when teams from the same division face off on Thursday games with totals of at least 50 (games with high totals are a fairly recent phenomenon; at least between 2003 and 2010, no games met these criteria). This system is on a 2-0 run so far this year.