NFL Week 7 TNF: A Casual Bettor's Paradise
Updated: Oct 23, 2022
Betting on the favorite and high scores: Cardinals -2.5 & o43.5
Empirical study finds that square bettors tend to gravitate toward favorites and OVERs, at least in some spots. Golec & Tamarkin (1991), for instance, observed an increased bias against underdogs, while Paul and Weinbach (2010) found that big favorites, road favorites and OVERs for games featuring high totals attracted more action). If this is true, week 7 Thursday Night Football action might represent a dream come true. We like the home favorite and the OVER when Jameis Winston's New Orleans Saints go matching in to State Farm Arena to face the Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals.
Supporting our thinning, ESPN's NFL Football Plwer Index (FPI) points to a home cover. FPI makes the Cards 1.4 points worse than an average team on a neutral field of play this week. But this system rates the Saints as 3.3 points below average on unbiased terrain. Thus, Arizona's expected edge equals 1.9 points plus home field advantage.
Applying Jimmy Boyd's True Home Field Edge methodology to data from Bet Labs since 2003-04, the Cardinals deserve an edge of 2.4 points as hosts.
So, all in, fundamentally, a line closer to Arizona -4/-4.5 appears fair to us. Accordingly, we perceive meaningful value with the Cardinals at the listed spread and are happy to lay less than the key three level.
Context likewise supports our play on Arizona versus the number, as NFL home favorites that appeared in the prior postseason have proven EXCEPTIONAL bets in non-division, Thursday Night Football action.
Teams in this spot have delivered a statistically significant 52%(!) return on investment since the 2004-05 season, and have suffered only two losing seasons over this span.
Separately, we also like the OVER this evening, as afternoon action featuring home teams that scored 20 or less in their prior out, versus competition from different divisions of the same conference, off losses, has proven fertile ground for OVER-backers.
Backing exceedingly high aggregate scoring on this situation has been good for a 15% long term return on investment. This angle is 2-1 so far this season.