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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2022 NFL Week 5: Output of an Early-Season System Going Strong

Updated: Oct 10, 2022

Taking points with seven underdogs history suggests are better than the betting public thinks...

One system on our Bet Labs dashboard that has been especially active so far this season seeks to exploit the betting public's early season recency bias by backing underdogs that posted no more than 20 points in their prior action.

We suspect casual bettors get too pessimistic on teams in this spot, bidding spreads on opposing favorites up to undue levels (later in the season, as better teams find their stride, these dogs' edge evaporates).

Teams in this position have delivered a long-term 10% return on investment, including a 14-9 ATS run (61% cover rate, 17% return on investment) so far this season.

After averaging close to six picks per week through week 4, this angle is back again with seven plays for the fifth round of NFL action. We are betting each. The Colts kick off our week at the Broncos Thursday evening. We are also taking points on the road with the Giants in NFL International action Sunday, and with the Bears and Steelers later Sunday morning. Plays on the Browns and Commanders as home dogs were triggered for early Sunday competition, as well as on the Panthers Sunday afternoon.

The final image illustrates all of this system's week 5 picks, including the actual spreads and vigs we locked in.

Happy betting!!

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