The Play: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-140) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Our go-to power rankings composite framework makes the Dallas Cowboys to be eight or nine points better than the Las Vegas Raiders at AT&T Stadium Thursday. As such, we are backing America's Team to beat the number on Thanksgiving Day. However, we are paying up to get below the key seven threshold.
We note that Dallas is 7-3 SU, good for the top spot in the NFC East. More germane to our purpose though, the Cowboys are 8-2 versus the number so far this season (the second most profitable team in the NFL to spread bettors).
We expect these teams' year-to-date trajectories versus the number to persist on Thanksgiving Day. Supporting this forecast, we note that on Thursdays, teams laying more than a touchdown outside their division have tended to secure the ATS win at a VERY high clip.
Granted, the sample size is rather slight, but the 71% long-term cover rate and 40% return on investment proved statistically significant at the 5% confidence level.