Backing the Bears cover at the Seahawks: Chicago +5.5
(AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
We are siding with the Chicago Bears for the ATS win at the Seattle Seahawks in NFL Preseason action Thursday on the basis of a history-based system that has a track record of delivering statistically significant.
Seattle opened as a field goal better than Chicago just a couple of days ago, but action on the home team has since pressured the line to the current 5.5 level (64% of against the spread betting tickets and 81% of the ATS dollars tracked by SportsInsights are down on Seattle).
We suspect Chicago's lackluster offense explains much of the public's clamor for Seattle versus the number (the Bears posted a meager 19 points in last week in a winning effort over the Chiefs, while the Seahawks put up 25 in a loss at Pittsburgh). However, history suggests objective bettors should consider siding with the Bears for the cover this week.
First, we note that underdogs have exhibited an edge in preseason play, generally speaking. Per the BetLabs database, dogs have covered at a 52.3% clip in preseason play since the 2004-05 season, while point-takers beat the number at a 50.9% clip in regular season action. We hypothesize that much of this disparity has to do with teams not using their best players for most of the preseason proceedings. As top players on chalk-laying teams tend to be superior to the best of worse teams, one impact of such personnel decisions is that the talent disparity between favs and dogs is diminished in preseason. Underdog covers are therefore more likely before the regular season commences, we suspect.
But, more specifically, preseason point-takers facing teams that did not appear in the prior postseason have proven strong bets, particularly on Thursdays.
Teams in this position have delivered an 11.5% return back to the 2004-05 season, and has suffered only three seasons with ATS win rates below 50%. This season is 1-1 ATS so far this year.
Happy betting!!