NFL 2022 NFL Week 14 SNF: Pair Bet on Miami Dolphins @ L.A. Chargers
Updated: Dec 11, 2022
Betting Dolphins snap back in shootout in LA: Miami -3 and o53.5
The ATS Pick: Dolphins -3
After a 5-1 stint in their last half dozen, the Miami Dolphins are 8-4 SU this season, good for the #2 spot in the in the AFC East. In fact, the Fins' six-game win streak was only interrupted last week by a 17-33 loss in San Francisco. History suggests though that Miami is likely to get back to their winning ways this week, with a win and cover at the Los Angeles Chargers. We are betting accordingly.
Teams that have won at least 60% of their games have proven great bets versus their conference following big losses...
This system has proven good for a hypothetical 22% return on investment since 2003-04 (statistically significant at the 95% confidence level), and has suffered a cover rate below 50% in only one season. Undergirding the consistent profitability of this angle, we hypothesize that recency bias compels bettors to shun (even quality) teams after the biggest losses, when in reality, good teams are likely to right-foot themselves after particularly flat performances.
The O/U Pick: OVER 53.5 Separately, we are betting that offensive output will exceed expectations, as we think L.A.'s lack of offense last week, coupled with Miami's disappointing loss, will coalesce to favor a barn burner in week 14:
Primetime action featuring road teams off losses has proven very fertile ground for OVER backers versus home teams from different divisions of the same conference that scored no more than 20 points in their last action...
This system has proven good for a hypothetical 21% return since 2003-04, with only five individual seasons with cover rates below 50%.
Explaining the success of this system, we suspect that, following disappointing offensive output, home teams are focused on putting points on the board. Similarly, road teams off losses might also feel an impetus to score more. Teams from different divisions are less familiar with each other's tendencies and gimmicks, so more success is likely on offense (for both sides). Happy betting!!