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NFL 2020 Week 5: Occasionally, We Like a Favorite

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports

Updated: Aug 5, 2021


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -7 -125


Of 25 NFL wagers we have published season-to-date through week 4, 17 have been aligned with underdogs, versus just one play on a favorite. This skew is probably not coincidence, as much of our work endeavors to exploit market biases, which commonly means fading herding toward popular or darling teams--typically favorites. However, our framework is objective, in that when a team laying points is perceived to be undervalued, a play will trigger, and we will position accordingly (provided we can glean sufficient supplemental data to validate the indication from our primary NFL handicapping system). We observe such signals for Sunday, including a play on America's team to snap a two-game skid and collect the cover versus the lowly New York Giants.


Our power rankings framework estimates the Cowboys are 8-10 points better than the Giants Sunday, including a one-point home field estimate to account for the observation that AT&T Stadium will host 21,000 fans for Dallas' home opener. We paid up for the extra point, given the historical significance of seven, but we are comfortable with the present line of -8 -105.


For context, the Giants' offense ranks 30th in passing and is dead last running the ball, by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. These numbers explain New York's meager 11 point per game average productivity in a season where teams are generally posting historic numbers. Not helping, the Giants are also quite turnover-prone, averaging two giveaways per contest.


Dallas is approximately equally likely to turn the ball over, and the Boys' 'D' is especially poor at stopping the run. However, unlike New York, who is not particularly good at anything particularly important, Dallas is especially proficient at the QB position. Dak Prescott is the sixth best QB in the NFL, by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, so Dallas should enjoy sufficient success through the air against New York's below average passing defense to maintain a comfortable distance on the scoreboard.


Consistent with this outlook, though perhaps counterintuitively, we note that bad teams laying moderate chalk at home have tended to cover.


Home favorites that did not appear in the prior playoffs and that have amassed a losing current season record have delivered a 10% return in investment since 2003.


This system is 1-0 ATS this year.


Happy betting!!


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