NFL 2020 Week 17: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
The Jags have not collected a win this year since stunning these very Colts with a victory, from the position of 7-point underdogs, in the season opener. Jacksonville is 6-9 ATS this season.
However, the Jaguars are 2-1 this year when taking more then ten points on the road. As the spread for Sunday's action in Indy has risen from the opening level of 12.5 to 15.5 at present, we are somewhat encouraged by this observation.
As more robust support though for the idea of the Jags cover, we note that away teams receiving points after a home stand that culminated with a BIG loss have proven strong bets historically, generating a 13% long-term ROI.
(The Jags got pummeled, 41-17, as hosts to the Bears last week.)
This system has managed only four losing years of the last 15 completed NFL seasons and is 10-5 versus the number this year.
Separately, fading home favorites laying more than ten to division rivals has likewise proven a highly profitable naive betting strategy, delivering a 14% return and turning a profit in nine seasons of the last 15.
This strategy is 3-1 ATS this year.