NFL 2020 Week 11: Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Backing the road dog cover: Tennessee Titans +6
Our primary framework makes the Ravens about five points better than the Titans in week 11 (we assign zero value to the notion of a Baltimore home field advantage, as no spectators will attend the event at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday). But aside from our quantification of the fundamental difference in ability between these teams, we also observe evidence to the effect that the context of Sunday's matchup also supports the Titans cover. As such, we are taking the six points and betting on Tennessee to keep this one within reach.
At 6-3, the Titans' straight up record is exactly as good as the Raven's. However, after opening on five game win streak, Tennessee has gone 1-3 SU in their last four games, including a 17-point loss to the Indianapolis Colts most recently. The Titan's week 10 undressing sets the stage for an ATS rebound today, in our thinking. Tennessee should be good enough to find fuel in the embarrassing loss at the Colts' hands, and reset. Further, as road teams are more likely to be undervalued by the betting market, that Tennessee is the away team today only strengthens our conviction.
History corroborates our thinking about good teams hitting the road after lopsided losses.
Away teams with at least 60% win rates, playing in their conference, after losses of at least two touchdowns have been great bets in the past, returning 31% since 2003 (this system is 2-1 ATS this season).