NFL 2020 Week 11: New York Jets @ LA Chargers
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Getting down on the road dogs: NY Jets +9.5
Our work has the Chargers as five to seven point favorites over the Jets in week 11, on a neutral field (no fans will attend the game, so conditions at SoFi Stadium will approximate a neutral field)...but we have perceived value before with the Jets, only to find ourselves in (costly) value traps, to borrow parlance from the world of investing. We ARE taking the flyer on the Jets today though, given a host of historical context that validates the signal from our primary approach.
For one, we note that, at 13-5 ATS, home dogs are on a tear versus their division this season.
More sustainably, teams with high cover margins tend to be overvalued later in the season.
Back to 2003, teams that cover by five or more, on average, through at least the first four weeks of the season have proven solid ATS fades thereafter, against all but elite competition (win rate ≤ 60%). This simple system is 8-4 this season.