Backing the Pats to cover the short chalk Sunday
Our go-to NFL handicapping framework makes the Patriots two or three points better than a floundering Texans squad in week 11, after we adjust for a modest home field advantage Houston's way. Supporting a play on the road favs Sunday, we highlight a profitable historical system that has made money over the long and short-term.
With Cam Newton back under Center for the Pats, the good times seem to be rolling. While New England failed to collected the cover at the Jets in week 9, the Patriots did manage the straight up win in Newton's first game back. More impressive, as seven point dogs, New England knocked off the then 6-2 Ravens last week, 23-17.
On the other hand, the Texans' regression this season is undeniable. Houston finished last year with a 10-6 straight up record. That showing implied the Texans were two or three points better than the average team, by our accounting. We rate Huston as two or three points worse than average presently.
Teams laying chalk after a SU win as an underdog have delivered an 8% return in investment historically (1-0 ATS this year). the barrel football (the Texans' straight up record bests only the Jets and Jaguars, and Houston is second-to-last on the ATS board, ahead of only Dallas). We expect the Pats and Texans are likely to continue moving in opposite directions this week.
But aside from our power rankings indication and our assessment recent team-level trends, New England's win versus Baltimore bodes well for the Patriots in today's action, from a broader historical perspective.
Teams laying chalk after a SU underdog win have delivered an 8% return in investment historically (this system is 1-0 ATS this year).