NFL 2020 Week 10 TNF: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Siding with the home dog and the UNDER: Titans +1 and u48.5
Our primary framework makes the Titans about two points better than the Colts in the week 10 NFL AFC South showdown, assuming Tennessee's Nissan Stadium is filled to one-eighth capacity Thursday. Consistent with this indication, we are taking the solitary point and backing the home dog for the cover. Separately, our computer sim work endorses the UNDER. We are likewise betting accordingly. Importantly, we observe historical/contextual support for both our ATS and total plays.
Inline with our bias toward the Titans in the week 10 kickoff contest, we note that teams taking points from familiar opposition are virtually infallible this year.
Home dogs are a blistering 12-2 ATS versus their division so far in the 2020 season.
Such performance is clearly not sustainable over the long run (this cohort has covered at a 48% clip since 2003, after all), however, there is no indication that normalization is imminent, so we regard this observation as a modest support for the signal from our primary framework.
Validating our play on the UNDER, we note that divisional Thursday Night Football action has tended toward lowing scoring historically, delivering a 6% long-term return on investment to UNDER-backers (2-1 this season).
Profitability improved somewhat when the total is higher the historical average, as is the case this evening.
Bottom line: We have gleaned sufficient evidence to move us to bet on the Titans to cover as well as the UNDER Thursday evening. Additionally, the present strikes us as a great spot to consider Tennessee in a teaser, as adding 6.5, for instance, to the listed line bypasses several key levels (3, 6 and 7). We are indeed also trying the 6.5-point teaser (Tennessee +7.5 & u55, -120)...and, to make things really spicy, we are taking a small flyer on a juicy 2-leg parlay--Titans +1 & u48.5, +269.