Chicago Bears ML +130 / +3 -125 @ Detroit Lions
Our primary NFL handicapping framework, a computer simulation-fueled power rankings approach, grades the Bears as two points better than the Lions on a neutral field in week 1. After ascribing a nominal home field advantage to Detroit to account for artificial crowd noise and virtual fans, we still favor the Bears by an ever so modest margin.
Our independent computer simulation routines likewise support the idea of a Bears' ATS win, and acknowledge the potential of the upset.
Consistent with these signals, based on data from Pro Football Reference, in the modern configuration of the NFL (i.e. since 2002), teams taking points from a division rival in week 1 have proven solid wagers, amassing a record of 47-31-1 (60%).
When the week 1 underdog is taking no more than a field goal from a divisional foe, the cover rate is virtually unchanged at 59%, though the sample size decreases to 29 games.
Additionally, The Action Network has observed that dogs of less than six points, facing their division during the first five weeks of the regular season are ripe for upset victories. Teams have delivered a 19% ROI since 2002 from this position.
This system identifies the Bears, Bucs, Packers and Washington as road dogs worthy of consideration on the moneyline in week 1.
Further, that the Bears and Lions both contend in the NFC North likewise supports our plays on the underdog. Since 2002, teams taking points from division competition on the first Sunday of the season are 47-31-1 ATS (60% cover rate, for a 15% ROI assuming a standard vig of -110).
In the face of our plays on Chicago though, BoydBets has observed that road dogs off at least seven wins last year are terrible week 1 bets. This system favors the Lions, Vikings and Saints to cover Sunday.
Nonetheless, as far as we can tell, the supports for Chicago outweigh the negatives, leaving us comfortable with the output of our framework.
Also of note, per SportsInsights, the Lions will have to manage Sunday without starting tight end, Hunter Bryant. Further, linebacker, Julian Okwara, and defensive back, Jeffrey Okudah, are on the injury list as questionable.
For Chicago, Khalil Mack is likewise listed as questionable, as is running back, David Montgomery. Mack's absence would be most consequential, as the 7th year linebacker is among the best players in the League, overall. However, Rotoworld indicates the expectation that Mack will suit up.
Bookmakers opened the Lions at -1, but takers showed up in force over the last month, pressuring the spread up to a field goal. Bears backers came out at this key level though, and bought the spread back down to the present +2.5.
Similarly, the Bears moneyline opened around +113. This figure was stretched to +138 or so at one point, before Bears supporters showed up and bought the line back to the vicinity of
As of time of this writing, 54% of spread bets and 69% of dollars wagered on the ATS outcome are down on Chicago, and 52% of ML wagers and 80% of dollars bet on the straight up winner are behind Chicago. These observations suggest the lines could come in more before kickoff. Thus, inclined bettors might be well served to act sooner than later to maximize line value.
We split our wager on the money line and spread, and we paid up to get back to +3. In our reckoning, the plus-money ML odds offset the high juice on the spread bet, resulting in an average vig overall. For more straightforward bettors, we also endorse a plain vanilla play on the Bears +2.5.
Happy betting!!