Cincinnati Bengals +1 @ Washington Football Team
Our primary framework grades the NFL week 11 cross-conference meeting between the Bengals and Washington as a PICK on neutral turf (which we think is fitting, as no fans will attend Sunday's event at FedEx Field). Additionally, we observe ample contextual support for taking the solitary point and backing Cincy to cover. Accordingly, we are betting the Bengals come out on top, versus the number Sunday.
Consistent with our favoring the Bengals cover, we note that the betting public tends to get too down on teams taking points after a big loss, creating opportunity for objective prognosticators.
Backing underdogs playing outside their division after a loss by at least three touchdowns has been good for a 10% return on investment (ROI) since 2003 (4-1 ATS season-to-date).
Separately, heading into week 11, both Washington and Cincinnati have managed only two wins apiece. Generally speaking, backing the underdog has been the play when two bad, relatively unacquainted teams face off.
In meetings between teams that average no better than one win every three games, the strategy of taking the points has been good for an 8% ROI since 2003, and is 14-9 versus the number this year.
The profitability of this system improves when the involved teams are 1) relatively unfamiliar with each other and 2) really bad, as is the case Sunday.
When bad teams that play in different divisions have gotten together, with each boasting no better than a 25% SU win rate, the historical ROI related to betting on the underdog is 22% (80-48-2 ATS, 62%), including a 5-4 run versus the number so far this season.
Separately, thanks to the pros at The Action Network, we also point out that previously bad teams taking less than a touchdown on the road have likewise proven strong wagers against all but the most prolific of offenses.
Away teams that won six or fewer games last season and are getting 6.5 or less in a contest with a total no greater than 50 have delivered a 15% ROI since 2003, playing on Sunday and Monday.
Happy betting!!