NFL Betting Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 -130

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In week 16, Pittsburgh surprised Cincinnati, winning 34-11, despite being slated as three-point home dogs. This outcome snapped a three-game losing streak for the Steelers. But even after this emphatic win, the Black and Yellow are taking 3.5 points at Seattle in week 17 action Sunday. History suggests the present spot represents a solid sell-high opportunity for the Steelers. As such, we are laying the chalk with the Seahawks,

The angle indicated in the graphic has proven good for a statistically significant 23% return on investment, and has submitted only four losing seasons over the examination period.

We hypothesize that this system's consistent success is attributable to recency bias. We suppose betting markets exhibit a tendency to get too high on squads after the biggest wins. Superior opposition (i.e. favorites) though possesses sufficient skill to expose this overestimation, particularly in non-conference action (as, the relative lack of familiarity that attends inter-conference play renders teams less prepared to counter better competition's offensive tendencies and capacities).

Thus, we count the Seattle Seahawks for the home cover among our week 17 NFL betting picks.

Happy betting!!