top of page

2022 NFL Week 5 MNF: A Pair Bet on Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports

Updated: Oct 10, 2022


As we progress from the early weeks of the NFL season to the portion we refer to as the "belly", we retire system's focused on exploiting recency bias based on conceptions from the prior year. We are not entirely turning over a new leaf though, as starting in week 5 we activate angles predicated on biases born in the current season.


To wit, the Chiefs are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS after a week 4 win at Tampa Bay, from the position of two-point underdog. Kansas City's average cover margin though is greater than six points per contest (thanks largely to their blowing the Cardinals out, 44-21, in week 1).


We expect this season's hot start for the Chiefs aroused visions of 2019-20, when Kansas City ultimately hoisted the coveted Lombardi trophy. Consistent with our thesis, we note that 68% of ATS bets tracked by Sports Insights are down on Mahomes and the crew for Monday evening's action.


However, likely unbeknownst to casual bettors, fading teams that have beat the number by an average of at least five has proven consistently profitable during the belly of the regular NFL season, versus opposition with no better than 60% ATS straight up win rates (the Raiders are 1-3 SU).



[Sharp bettors are apparently aware of this tendency, which explains why the majority of dollars wagered versus the number, 58%, are with the Raiders.]


This betting angle has delivered a statistically significant 9% return on investment back to 2005-06, and the only season during this span to submit an ATS win rate below 50% was 2019-20. Further, this system is 2-1 versus the number so far this year.


As such, we are taking the touchdown plus the hook and siding with the Raiders for the road cover.


We also like the correlated O/U play Monday, and are betting u52 as well. When underdogs' finish with a score within proximity of the spread to the favorite's offensive output, more times than not, the favorite struggled to muster points. This situation favors the UNDER.


But in addition to a theoretical support for the notion of a disappointing aggregate score, we have observed that division action featuring high scores tend toward the UNDER on Thursdays and Mondays.



Despite the small sample size, this system's stunning 34% hypothetical return on investment since 2009-10 proved statistically significant. Further, this angle provided sub-50% ATS win rates in only two years over this horizon.


We suspect that such primetime divisional showdowns attract a good amount of action from novice gamblers, who generally gravitate toward better teams and OVERs. But in such contests, heightened familiarity, stemming from more frequent meetings necessitated by intra-division scheduling requirements, scoring is generally stunted relative to expectations. Our hypothesis is that defenses' are more effective in their own division because they have repeatedly seen and game-planned for the opposition's offensive capacities and proclivities.


Thus, we are comfortable backing the Raiders plus the points and the UNDER Monday evening.


Happy betting!!


Comments


bottom of page