Piling on with the herd: Backing UNDER 43

The UNDER is 88-61 this season, for a 59% cover rate and a 13% return on investment. While aware of the trend toward disappointingly low combined offense at it developed, we resisted piling on, given a lack of a compelling rationale explaining this success (UNDERs are right around 50% over the long-term, after all). However, the week 10 installment of Monday Night Football, which pits the best and worst teams of the NFC East against each other, offers the empirical validation we require to do the trendy thing. We are betting the Commanders and Eagles combine for less than 43 points.

In regular season NFL action featuring a home team that made the prior post-season laying double-digits to division rivals, the UNDER has delivered a (statistically significant) 15% return on investment back to 2004-05...

This angle is 2-0 this season.

As of the time of this writing, 87% of O/U bets and 75% of dollars stakes on the total are backing the UNDER...so the success this year of simply betting on lower scores is well circulated among bettors. As a result in this one-sided action, the line has stopped an opening level of 45 to the current 43. Inclined bettors might want to jump on the UNDER sooner than later, as the number could drop more.

Happy betting!!