Taking the free field goal with the road team: Lions +3
In week 5 NFL action the 1-3 Lions, the worst team in the NFC North, are taking a field goal from the hosting Patriots, who sport an identical 1-3 record, good for the bottom of the AFC East heap. We are siding with Detroit for the cover.
Supporting our position, in regular season NFL action, a solidly profitable rule of thumb is to take the points in meetings between teams from different divisions, each with no better than a 25% win rate.
This simple system has been good for an incredibly consistent 22% hypothetical return on investment back to the 2003-04 season, with only three years of sub-50% cover rates.
This angle is off to a 4-0 ATS start this year.
Through a different lens, ESPN's NFL FPI has Detroit as 1.7 points better than New England on a neutral field in week 5. Jimmy Boyd's True Home Field methodology suggests the Pats deserve a 1.9 point edge as the host team (based on data from Sports Insights since 2003). Thus, this approach sees this game as a PICK, implying a key three points value with the road dogs.
Similarly, Massey-Peabody ranks the Patriots the worst team in the League this week (every single New York Jets player: "Hold my beer"). The Massey-Peabody framework gives the Lions a 3.15 point edge on a neutral field. Even applying Cade Massey's 2.4-point estimate of average NFL home field advantage still suggests Detroit is a live dog Sunday.
As of the time of this writing, the Patriots have yet to announce their starting quarterbac for Sunday. However, with Mac Jones doubtful with a left high ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on injured reserve, rookie Bailey Zappe appears likely to lead New England's charge.
Writers for the New York Post observed that rookie QB's have struggled versus the number during weeks 4-15, amassing records of 85-160 SU and 107-132-6 ATS since 2013.
An examination by TeamRankings observed a similar ATS record, 26-31-1, for first- time starting QB's that were not drafted during the first round and that did not start the season as the primary in their position (for the decade ended Septemer 13, 2019). This analysis also found that teams playing inexperienced, lower-level quarterbacks won outright less than expected.
Happy betting!!