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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2022 NFL Week 4: Backing Three Dogs off Disappointing Offensive Output

Updated: Dec 11, 2022

Reliable system highlights underdogs worth playing Sunday

We have detailed on multiple occasions during this young NFL season the merit of a particular system on our Bet Labs dashboard (see here and here for examples).

Through roughly the first third of the football year, underdogs coming off sub-par offensive showings have tended to cover the spread in their next action...

This angle has delivered an 11% long-term return on investment, including an impressive 10-5 ATS run so far this season.

Our hypothesis for this system's success is simply that the betting public's recency bias results in an underestimation of point-takers following disappointing offensive performances.

Per this system, we have laid the following three wagers against the spread:

  • Commanders +3.5 -120 @ Cowboys,

  • Chiefs @ Buccanneers +3 -120

  • Cardinals +1.5 @ Panthers

Plays are likewise triggered for

the Jets (at Steelers), the Texans (vs. Chargers), the Saints (vs. Vikings), the Broncos (at Raiders) and Rams vs. the 49ers in accordance with this set of criteria. However, we are passing on these signals, as we have observed conflicting evidence in these instances.

Happy betting!!

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