2022 NFL Week 2 TNF: Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
A historically solid spot for the UNDER: Chargers @ Chiefs u54
The UNDER is off to a blistering 11-5 start through the first week of the 2022-23 NFL season. We are betting offensives continue to disappoint when week 2 action kicks off Thursday with the meeting between AFC West member L.A. Chargers and the division rival Kansas City Chiefs, at Arrowhead Stadium.
Informing our week 2 Thursday Night Football play, we have observed that high-total, divisional action on Thursday's has proven fertile ground for UNDER-backers.
In regular season Thursday NFL action featuring a betting total of at least 50 and teams from the same division, the UNDER has been good for a 42% long-term historical return on investment.
We theorize that the sucess of this angle owes to 1) the increased familiarity associated with facing division foes, which, we suspect, translates to greater knowledge of strengths and tendencies, and a better ability to counter, by extension, and 2) teams playing on short weeks, which, we hypothesize, stimies offensive output as players, operating on reduced recovery times, drag a bit.
The profitability of this system proved statistically significantly different (higher) than zero at better than the 95% confidence level, despite the mere 20-game sample.
Further, historical profitability proved robust across a variety of applicable circumstances. For instance, when home teams faced their division in Thursday games with high O/U's after going OVER the total in their previous game, this angle is 7-4-1. Conversely, when road teams' last action finished UNDER the total, this system is 4-3-1.
Or, when the host team made an appearance in the prior postseason, this system is 10-2. While, when the visiting team missed the last playoffs the result is a 6-3 run for the UNDER.