Betting on surprisingly high scores: Falcons / Rams o47.5 and Seahawks / 49ers o43

There is empirical evidence that NFL bettors prefer OVERs, at least in limited circumstances. Paul & Weinbach (2021), for example, demonstrate a predilection toward the OVER for games in the 2020 season with the highest totals. In week 2 NFL action, we are succumbing to our innate herding instinct and backing two OVERs--though, in contrast to typical sheeple, we have an independent and objective basis for doing what everyone else is doing. I laugh as I type this, but read on and draw your own conclusion.

During the first third of the season, history says back the OVER in Sunday action featuring home teams that made the prior playoffs but that are averaging no more than 18 points per contest on the year, when these squads play within their conference.

We suspect offense lapses among playoff-caliber teams stem from temporary lulls in mental acuity rather than from impaired capacities to move the ball. After a run of embarrassing performance, squads in this position tend to redouble their focus, which is typically sufficient to right-foot their offenses and beat the number in their next out.

Given what we know about the existence of recency bias in betting markets, it occurs to us that this system's success might also find support from a tendency among the betting public to shun such teams after disappointing stints. A flood of action on the opposition might cause bookmakers to shade betting lines, amplifying the opportunity.

Whatever the reason, betting on higher than expected aggregate scoring from this position has delivered a 34% return on investment back to 2005-06, with only three seasons with cover rates below 50%.

In week 2, this system highlights three OVERs. We are playing two of the lot:

• Falcons @ L.A. Rams o47.5

• Seahawks @ 49ers o43

We are passing on Bears @ Packers o41.5. Green Bay is laying ten to Chicago in week 2. Historically, games featuring the biggest spreads have not demonstrated an edge for the OVER. Rationalizing this departure from the generalization, we theorize that the largest spreads indicate instances where lessor offenses are unlikely to pull their weight in contributing to pushing scoring OVER (due either to their own offensive inability or to the opposing defense...or both). In support of this thinking, we note that big dogs in this spot failed to post more than even ten points six times out of eleven.

Happy betting!!