Backing Chicago for the 1H cover: Bears +5.5 1H
Buffalo is 11-3 SU, but only 6-7-1 ATS this season. Most recently, the Bills have rattled off five straight wins, but beat the number only twice during this run. We are betting the ATS grind continues for Buffalo at Soldier Field on Christmas Eve, and are backing the Bears to cover the first half chalk. Our rationale is indicated below:
In regular season NFL action, backing home teams to cover the first half spread, after they mustered no more than three touchdowns of offense per game over their last three, has proven a solidly profitable long-term strategy versus non-division opposition that made the prior post-season...
This angle has delivered a statistically significant 17% return on investment since the 2005-06 season, and has submitted cover rates below 50% in only four years.
Like many of the systems on our BetLabs dashboard, we expect the consistent profitability of this angle owes to the betting public's recency bias, which results in the overweighting of near-term outcomes. Chicago lost their last seven games SU, and posted only 10, 19 and 20 points in their last three games, at the Jets and versus Green Bay and Philly, respectively. We expect this soft offensive showing turned bettors off, which, in turn, motivated bookmakers to shade lines toward the favorite, unlocking value with the Bears.