Betting big spread an overreaction: Indianapolis Colts +9.5

ESPN's NFL Football Power Index makes the Dallas Cowboys the best team in the NFL, on a neutral field, heading into week 13. This same framework ranks the Colts 24th. Nonetheless, we like Indy, as big dogs, for the road cover in this NFC showdown Sunday evening. Supporting this thinking, we point to the following empirically-validated

system:

Fading teams that beat the spread by an average of at least five points has proven good for a statistically significant 11% return versus opposition from the same conference with win rates no better than 60%...

(Through week 12, the Boys' average cover margin is greater than a touchdown.)

This angle has proven remarkably consistent over the years, delivering only one season with a sub-50% cover rate since 2005-06.

Our approach to handicapping focuses on exploiting persistent biases evident in betting markets. Recency bias is chief among the behavioral predispositions bettors tend to exhibit, and we think, explains the success of this set of criteria. Specifically, we hypothesize that this system's profitability is largely attributable to the public's expectation that near-term results are indefinitely repeatable. History though implies that reversion toward League averages is likely after a spate of superlative performance. Accordingly, we are taking the points with Matty Ice and the Indianapolis Colts.

Happy betting!!