2022 NFL Week 13: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Strong winds should limit offensive output: Packers Bears u44
Chicago's last six games finished above the betting total, bringing the Bears' O/U record to 8-4 on the season. Green Bay too will come into Sunday's action riding an OVER streaik. The Packers O/U is 6-6 so far this year, after exceeding the total in each of their last three. But despite recent predilections toward higher than anticipated aggregate scoring, environmental conditions support the UNDER Sunday. We are betting accordingly.
In regular season NFL action since 2003-04, the cover rate for the UNDER has been about consistent with either outcome of a coin toss (2518-2468-75). However, lower scores have exhibited a modest but meaningful advantage in divisional action. The UNDER cashed in at a 52.5% clip under this circumstance (which proved statistically significantly different than 50%, at the 95% confidence level).
We believe the UNDER's edge in divisional action owes to the increased familiarity that more frequent meetings breeds (the NFL schedule requires teams to play their division six times per season). We hypothesize that the game planning that attends more regular divisional meetings render teams better situated to counter opposition's offensive tendencies.
But when winds blow at speeds of 10 miles per hour or greater in regular season, divisional NFL play, the UNDER is 219-165-5 over this same horizon, for a 57% cover rate and an 11% hypothetical return on investment. This result proved statistically significantly different than 52.5% (the cover rate required to breakeven, assuming the standard -110 vigorish) at the 95% confidence level. This finding conveys a high level of confidence that backing the UNDER in games featuring strong winds and teams from the same division will yield a profit over sufficiently long terms.
The rationale we proffer for the UNDER's success in these cases is simply that teams are inclined to pass less and run more in windy situations, to mitigate the potential for turnovers owing to errant ball placement. According to TeamRankings, NFL teams' average gain per passing play ranges from 6.1 to 8.5 yards so far this season. On the other hand, average yards per rushing attempt ranges from 3.3 to 5 4 yards. As such, run-heavy offenses are indeed likely to result in slower progress matriculating the ball down the field, and lower scores, by extension.
But we have observed more substantial profitability for the UNDER in regular season divisional action played in the windiest conditions during the winter months. In December and January, this system is 100-61-4 ATS (62%) historically, for a 20% return.
This refined angle has submitted cover rates south of 50% only three times since 2003-04.
Potential adherents should not be discouraged by the offensively prolific nature of most Bears' games. This system is 39-25-4 (61%), for an 18% return on investment, when the host team's last one (or more) games exceeded the betting total.
As of the time of this writing, 13 mph to 15 mph winds are anticipated for Sunday's action, and expected conditions appear to be worsening as kick-off draws nearer (Tuesday, the forecast was for 10 mph winds). If double-digit windspeeds remain the expectation, history says the UNDER is the play.
Regarding personnel, the Packers' QB, Aaron Rodgers, will go, despite a rib injury. This news caused the spread to widen from Green Bay -2.5 to the present -4.5, and drove the total from as low as 42 to the current 43.5. The Bears' Justin Fields is listed as questionable. A final call on the Bears' starter might likewise garner a reaction in betting lines (if you expect Fields to play, wait to back the UNDER, otherwise act now).