Backing Wilson and company for the cover: Broncos +9.5 -120
The Denver Broncos are 3-8 straight up (and 2-9 versus the number) this season, while the Baltimore Ravens are 7-4 SU (and 4-6-1 ATS) so far this year. The Ravens are clearly the better team, but we like Russell Wilson's Broncos for the cover at Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium in week 13 action Sunday. Supporting our perspective, we cite the following historically reliable system.
In regular season NFL conference play, fading favorites that missed the last playoffs but that have amassed straight up win rates or 60% or better has proven good for a statistically significant 11% long-term return versus teams with no better than 35% SU win rates...
This angle has submitted cover rates south of 50% in only two seasons since 2003-04, and is 5-2 ATS so far this year.
We conjecture that its profitability owes to the public's recency bias, which, we think, compels bettors to flock to teams that have experienced success of late (the Ravens won four of their last five), despite the equalizing effect of the spread.