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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2022 NFL Week 11 TNF: Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

We like the home boys for a second consecutive cover: Packers -3

Green Bay is 4-6 ATS overall this season and 1-5 versus the number as the favorite. Tennessee is 7-2 ATS, including a 4-1 run on the road and a 2-1 stint as the underdog. Yet, the Packers are laying a field goal as hosts to the Titans in week 11 NFL Thursday Night Football action. Despite Green Bay's struggles and Tennessee's successes versus the betting line to date, we are backing the Packers as short favorites for the cover in week 11. We cite the following empirically-validated system as support for our position:

Backing home favorites that appeared in the prior postseason has proven tremendously profitable on Thursdays versus non-division opposition...

This angle has delivered a whopping 49% hypothetical return on investment since the 2004-05 season, suffering losses in only two seasons over this span (the system is 2-1 so far this year).

Also worth mentioning, in spite of the slight sample size, we observed evidence that the profitability of this system is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Through a different lens, ESPN's NFL Football Power Index makes the Packers two points better than the Titans this week on a neutral field of play. Further, Green Bay's average home field edge since Aaron Rodgers was drafted is about four points (since last season, playing at Lambeau has been worth a heftier, six-point average margin for Green Bay). Thus, this more fundamental approach makes the line at least -6 for the home squad, likewise validating the value with Green Bay at the listed spread.

Happy betting!!

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