The rule is to take the points this week: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers +3 -120

We had the Panthers versus the number last week, when they were absolutely pummeled at Cincinnati, 21-42. As either disciplined bettors or masochists, we are kicking off our week 10 action by going back to the well again and backing Carolina as home dogs to the Falcons.

Supporting our pick, we note that underdogs are having a year, as indicated by their remarkable 77-56-3 (58%) ATS record through week 9. We expect this trend to persist at least for a while longer, as week 10 is THE best period of the football year for underdogs, generally speaking. Point-takers are 131-102-6 (56%) versus the number in week 10 between 2003 and 2021. This cover rate proved statistically significant different than a 50% ATS win rate at better than the 95% confidence level, conveying high conviction that dogs do, in fact, boast an edge in week 10.

As a somewhat more specific support for the 3-6 ATS Panthers' bid for the cover Thursday, we have observed that reversion to the mean is the historical norm in situations where very good teams ATS lay the chalk to very bad ones.

After the fifth week of the regular season, when dogs that have covered no more than 40% of their games match up with squads with at least 60% ATS win rates, taking the points has delivered a long-term 12% return on investment (ROI)...

This angle has lost in only four seasons since 2005-06 (and one of those four was an ever so slight 2% loss, on a 17-17 ATS record), and is 5-4 versus the number so far this year. Carolina is 1-1, per this system, after their embarrassing week 9 performance.

But for any bettors that might feel reticent to support a lowly Panthers squad versus a team tied for the second best ATS record in the League, we offer the observation that our "Good to be bad..." system has historically thrived in week 10, on a 27-8-1 ATS record over the examination period (for a 77% cover rate and a 49% ROI). In fact, not surprising given that almost all dogs go to heaven in week 10, this period has proven the best week of the season for this system (functionally) -- week 18 boasts a higher, 93%, return, but that figure is entirely based on one single game that met these criteria in that period covering the spread.

Happy betting!!