Sticking to our week 10 knitting: Indianapolis Colts +5.5

Consistent with our 'all (okay, most) dogs go to heaven' guideline for betting NFL week 10, we are backing the Indianapolis Colts as hosts to the Raiders Sunday afternoon. But we are not naively taking all points this week. Rather, our support for Indy is predicated on the output of a historically reliable system on our Bet Labs dashboard:

Teams taking points from a different division of their conference after posting single-digit offensive output in their last action have proven good for a hypothetical 13% long-term return on investment...

We have observed evidence that the profitability of this angle (including this year's 4-1 ATS showing do far) is statistically significant at the 94% confidence level. Further, this system has recorded cover rates below 50% in only four seasons since 2003-04.

But in addition to the compelling indication from the aforementioned set of criteria, ATS trends this season likewise align with the idea of the home, dog cover this afternoon. The Riaders are 2-4 ATS laying the chalk, and 1-4 on the road. Conversely, the Colts are 2-2 versus the number at their Lucas Oil Stadium, and 2-2 as underdogs.

The Colts' QB, Matt Ryan, has apparently lost his starting spot to Sam Ehlinger. Ryan missed action recently with a shoulder injury, but interim head coach Jeff Saturday has indicated recently that the now-healthy veteran had been relegated to the role of back-up.

we do not estimate this personnel change lessens the Colts' chance at the cover. According to FootballOutsiders' DYAR statistic, Ryan's performance was notably worse than what would be expected from a replacement level quarterback, and Ehlinger has not fared appreciably better or worse.

In fact, per the chart above, from Sports Insights, the betting spread has been moving Indy's way in recent days, tightening from as wide as Colts +6.5 to +4.5 as of the time of this writing. This observation might imply Indy's chances actually improve with Ehlinger, not Ryan, under center.

(Our 'Dogs off bad offensive showings...' system likewise favors the Packers, plus the points, versus the Cowboys. We are betting this game too. See here for an alternate rationale for backing Green Bay to beat the number).

Happy betting!!