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2022 NFL Week 1: Teasing a Road Favorite and Home Dog

Two-Leg, 6-Point (-120) Teaser: Colts -2 @ Texans and Packers @ Vikings +7.5

We are packaging plays on the Indianapolis Colts as road favorites at the Houston Texans, and the Minnesota Vikings, who are listed as slight home dogs versus the visiting Green Bay Packers, into a six-point teaser.


Recall that the standard vigorish for such a construct is -120. This level of juice suggests each leg must be expected to hit at greater than a 74% rate to imply profitability...√-120 ÷ [-120-100] = 74%.


Why the Vikings?


An early season system predicated on capitalizing on the betting public's bias against underdogs forecasts a Minnesota cover against the listed line (as well as ATS wins for the Falcons and, of particular interest, theTexans). Specifically, in NFL regular season game 1's, it has proven tremendously profitable to back dogs facing division foes that missed the last postseason.


But the graphic below indicates that, in addition to generating statistically significant profit versus the standard spread, teams in this position have proven profitable versus teased lines as well. Note that squads fitting this angle's criteria beat lines improved by six points 81% of the time—well north of the 74% hurdle rate.



Why the Colts?


True, we are backing the Texans +8 based on the aforementioned system (and other historically validated angles). However, consistent with H-Town's +300 moneyline odds (which imply a mere 25% probability of the straight up win), we deem it unlikely Houston can pull offthe upset.


Empirical data supports our expectation regarding the absolute outcome for the Colts at Texans meeting. Since the 2003-04 season, road teams laying more than a touchdown but less than a TD + a field goal have covered lines teased by six 81% of the time (the same cover rate achieved by teasing our "Fade week 1 perceptions..." system.



Separate from any specific fundamental rationale for expecting covers from Minnesota and Indy (against adjusted lines, that is), a week 1 teaser including these legs passes through several 'key levels' that inherently improve the potential of cashing in. Teasing the Vikings spread from +1.5 to +7.5, for instance, results in covers if Minnesota loses by 3, 6 and 7. This range includes the most common differentials in professional football. Similarly, the Colts' line, amended from -8 to -2, crosses the same thresholds. In his book, Sharp Sports Betting, Sanford Wong identified teases through 3, 6 and 7 as more likely to cash in.


Happy betting!!